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It's eye-openeing that genius has a lot more to do with not giving up and trying again than common sense would predict. . you cannot change randomness but you can give yourself more shots on goal.
I dreamed of the number 7 for seven straight nights, he said, "and 7 times 7 is 48." Those of us with a better command of our multiplication tables might chuckle at the man's error, but we all create our own view of the world and then employ it to filter and process our perceptions, extracting meaning from the ocean of data that washes over us in daily life. A poor understanding of probability can lead to poor decisions.
It is over 50% if there are only 23 people in the room. Its that simple.I was also reminded of my statisics courses where I learned that small samples can be taken which that can be very accurate on the views on an overall population.One example given was the probability of two people in a room having the same birthday.
The book starts with a captivating prologue:"A few years ago a man won the Spanish national lottery with a ticket that ended in the number 48. It talked about how people tend to be irrational and not consider the true probability of things happening.A good understanding of probability can help with makeing proper decisions.
And it give the math to work it out.It also talked about people's view of fate or destiny and how sometimes that can cloud people's view of randomness.Good book. Proud of his "accomplishment," he revealed the theory that brought him the riches.
And we often make errors that, though less obvious, are just as significant as his."Now if that does not hook you, you might not be the probability person I am.
In it, the subjects are presented with a series of guesses about some random event--for example, wither a red or green light will appear. A second method is to guess "green" 80% of the time and "red" 20% of the time. It is filled with examples of how our intuitions about random events are wrong.
If the green light is set to light up 80% of the time, the the rat "wins" 80% of the time. This has the possibility of being right 100% of the time (if one can guess right), but over time will only average being right 68% of the time. The problem with this method is it guarantees being wrong 20% of the time too.
This is a highly readable survey on randomness. This is what rats do. Humans usually try to guess the pattern and, as a result, don't do as well as a rat.
My favorite is a description of an experiment. One method is to guess the color that appears most frequently.
But I'll bet you find it a snoozer and you'll find it in no way lives up to the subtitle "how randomness rules our lives". This book is one part introduction to probability and one part biography of mathematicians. If that interests you, then you'll probably like it.
Emergence says that for this very reason we need to study whole systems and look at nature as processes and not things.So what are the the chances you would even exist to read all this. This paper started a very small ball rolling which would eventually become the boulder of quantum mechanics.Today, statistics, probability and randomness are also at the heart of the related studies of chaos and emergence. Chaos.also referred to as the Butterfly Effect.asserts that even so humble as the flapping of a butterflies wing can sufficiently change a system so that over time enormous consequences ensue. What are the chances you would even exist to read all this.The mind blowing thing about this book is that using something so humble as statistics as his starting point, Mlodinow manages to reach and provide inspiration on even such ultimate questions.Along the way Mlodinow discusses the history of statistics, probability and randomness and provides some very interesting insights.In the very beginning, serious mathematicians along with the societies they lived in eschewed the study of random events like success and failure and life and death considering them to be the very province of the Gods themselves. Perhaps the ultimately fascinating thing about statistics is that it can meaningfully provide mathematical insight into such questions and in so doing help us to better answer them. See 1 Samuel 14:41.Eventually, however, the gamblers overcame such squeemishness concerning that sacredness of chance when they learned that serious study of the topic could result in serious money.And just as understanding probability and statistics made for better gambling emerging cities like London soon learned that it also made for better governance in understanding the various vicissitudes of their birth, death and immigration rolls.In science too, probability and statistics came to provide better models for understanding nature. While all societies engaged in forms of randomness in communing with their Gods it's interesting to note that even the Bible reports the use of a probabalistic device.the Urim and Thummim.in communicating with YHWH. Interestingly enough, Einstein's most cited paper is his 1905 masterwork on Brownian motion which described that statistical effect of subatomic collisions and their force at the microscopic level.
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